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Rupee ends mildly lower on foreign banks' dollar buys; forward premiums decline.


Date: 03-05-2024
Subject: Rupee ends mildly lower on foreign banks' dollar buys; forward premiums decline
The Indian rupee ended weaker on Thursday, despite an uptick in its Asian peers, as dollar demand from foreign banks weighed on the local currency, alongside importers' hedging demand.

The rupee closed at 83.47 against the U.S. dollar, moderately weaker from its close of 83.4250 in the previous session. The local unit hovered in a tight 83.42-83.4750 band during the day's session.

Most Asian currencies gained, with the Thai baht up 0.6% and leading gains. The dollar index was steady near 105.7 after declining 0.6% on Wednesday following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and Chair Jerome Powell's comments.


The dollar-rupee pair was "well bid on dips" on Thursday, with "strong buying seen at 83.42 levels," a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said.

Bids to buy dollars from at least two large foreign banks pressured the rupee in the latter half of the session, the trader added.


Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums declined, with the 1-year implied yield down 2 basis points (bps) at 1.65%, pressured by an uptick in near-maturity U.S. bond yields. The 1-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 4 bps in Asian hours to 4.24%.


"We maintain our constructive view on INR, but have raised our Q2 2024 USD/INR forecast a touch to 83.30 to account for some near-term dollar strength," MUFG Bank analysts said in a note.


The dollar index is up 4.2% so far this year, while the Indian rupee has dipped by close to 0.3%. Fading hopes of deep rate cuts by the Fed have boosted U.S. bond yields and the dollar.


Market expectations currently lean in favour of a singular Fed rate cut over 2024, a marked departure from the six rate cuts expected earlier in the year, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

 Source Name : Economic Times

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