India Forecasts Enough Grain Stocks for Continued Exports.

NEW DELHI—India will probably be able to continue exporting grains despite plans to provide heavily subsidized grains to most of its population, Farm Minister Sharad Pawar said Tuesday.

The government hopes to roll out its National Food Security Law, which aims to provide grains at very low cost to 70% of the population, as soon as possible in a move that analysts have said will likely require exports of most grains to be seriously curtailed.

But Mr. Pawar told reporters that good rainfall this monsoon season will likely lead to record autumn harvests, including the main summer-sown grain, rice.

"As of today, the stock position is very strong," Mr. Pawar said.

If anything, India has been holding on to excessive grain supplies. As of July 1, Indian government granaries were stocking 73.9 million metric tons of foodgrains, 2½ times more than the minimum buffer level.

Heavy downpours across northern India over the past few weeks have damaged some grains stored in the open, but they won't affect the rollout of the food security law, Mr. Pawar said.

Total rainfall between June 1 and July 15 was 17% above the 50-year average and summer-crop plantation area increased to 51.8 million hectares as of July 12 compared with 34.1 million hectares a year earlier, according to government data.

By the time the crops are harvested, starting in mid-October, the government may have started to implement its food security law, which awaits parliamentary passage after the administration of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh pushed through by executive order early this month.

The next session of Parliament convenes Aug. 5, which is the earliest date the new law could be passed. Although it isn't likely to sail through without some grousing, as opposition parties have complained that executive orders should only be issued during emergencies, analysts have forecast the law will eventually be passed, as few politicians would want to be seen opposing such a welfare measure before a number of state and national elections expected later this year and next year, respectively.

Mr. Pawar said he is confident that the law will be passed and that it will be implemented as soon as possible.

Separately, Mr. Pawar said a rise in vegetable prices of late is due to a temporary shortage, and prices may come down once harvesting begins.

Heavy monsoon rains damaged vegetable crops that had been due for harvest last month in much of northern India, leading to reduced availability and rising prices. Prices of some produce, including tomatoes, onions and eggplants, have almost doubled since late June.

Source : online.wsj.com