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Global Economic Outlook: Recovery in different gears.


Date: 11-03-2010
Subject: Global Economic Outlook: Recovery in different gears
Standard & Poor's the credit ratings agency, says in its latest Global Economic Outlook that the global economy seems to have turned a corner, and so-called green shoots are sprouting around the world. Governments' coordinated monetary and fiscal efforts largely help explain the apparently simultaneous -- if slow--recoveries that many countries began to enjoy late last year, but the primary cause of the recovery is that world financial markets are getting back to normal, again in large part because of heavy intervention by central banks and government agencies.

However, S&P says the extent of the rebound varies by country: It remains in low gear for Europe and North America, while others, notably China and India, are moving ahead at full speed. Moreover, the recoveries in most of Latin America and Australia, meanwhile, are moving at a relatively steady pace. The US economy, which went into recession a little earlier than its peers, likely bottomed out in the second quarter of last year. The downturn in Europe was deeper than in the US but ended at roughly the same time, in part because of major monetary and fiscal stimulus. However, softer economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year and fears about sovereign risk in some European countries have heightened concerns about the recovery's strength. Japan suffered the deepest recession of the major industrial countries. It's emerging sooner than the agency expected, with exports benefiting in part from Chinese strength. However, weak export growth in non-Asian trading partners and soft domestic demand will keep the recovery slow.

S&P says Developing Asia remains in the best shape of the major regions. Chinese growth slowed because of the reduced demand for its goods in the industrial world, but an enormous (relative to its economy: 13% of GDP over two years) fiscal stimulus program concentrated on infrastructure spurred domestic employment and production. India depends less on exports than China but also has less room for fiscal stimulus because of its budget problems.

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