The Union
Budget 2018 is pro-rural growth, which is well intended and not necessarily populist. But the success of the Budget depends on higher GST revenue collection, benign oil prices and a strong recovery in the rural economy. On an aggregate basis, this seems to be a well-balanced Budget. On the revenue side, the projection of 16.63 per cent growth appears to be reasonable, considering the buoyancy in direct tax and improving compliance. Whereas, on the expenditure side, there has been balanced allocation amongst various sectors with a continued emphasis on infrastructure and the health and rural sectors.
Though there has been some disappointment with respect to the introduction of the long-term capital gains tax (LTCG), the reasonable rate of 10 per cent tax and the grandfathering clause should ensure a smooth transition to the new tax regime without hurting investors' sentiment as it is incremental in nature.
The budgetary allocation for the roads, railways and aviation sectors has seen significant increase, which will boost infrastructure growth. The enhanced health insurance coverage, coupled with LTCG and dividend distribution tax on equity-oriented mutual funds makes the insurance sector relatively attractive. The government's focus on housing, health, irrigation, power for all, rural roads and improving the farmer's income is likely to support the overall economic growth. Though the headline fiscal deficit is higher, the government has targeted reduced net market borrowing, which may be potentially positive for the interest rate. The increased food subsidy bill by 21 per cent and the confusion over basis of the cost of farm produce have made the bond market jittery.
Continuing with steps that can give further impetus to the NPA resolution process under the insolvency and bankruptcy code, the government has issued clarifications on various taxation issues related to MAT and carry-forward losses, which may help prospective bidders.
The Budget has attempted to address the need for skilled employment generation by giving various sops across industries.
And the government has supported the 'Make in India' programme by increasing import duty on many electronic goods, tyres and automobile parts.
Source: economictimes.indiatimes.com