NEW DELHI: The Indian indices ended marginally lower for the fourth straight week, led by profit booking by investors just ahead the
Budget 2013-14.
The markets fell in two out of the five trading sessions of the week. The BSE Sensex slipped by 0.78 per cent and the Nifty by 0.63 per cent for the week ended February 22, 2013.
For the coming week, analysts expect the markets to move with caution and remain volatile just ahead of the Union Budget 2013-14. Investors will focus on changes, if any, in excise duty and service tax in the Budget.
Railway stocks will be in focus ahead of Rail Budget 2013 which will be presented to the Lok Sabha on Tuesday, February 26, 2013. Another key event to watch out would be the economic survey that will be laid in the Parliament on Wednesday, February 27, 2013.
"The Indian markets seem to be cautious ahead of the Union Budget 2013. The volatility is likely to increase in the next few trading sessions ahead of Budget, and the Budget might act as a catalyst for determining the medium-term trend of the Nifty for the next couple of months," said Vinit Pagaria, VP - Investment Strategies at MicrosecBSE -0.41 % Capital Ltd.
The new guideline released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday is likely to lift the market mood ahead of the Budget and may keep several NBFCs in focus in the coming week.
"RBI's guidelines for new banking licences may keep the potential contenders in the limelight," says Soumyadip Raha, Executive Analyst at Microsec Ltd. He recommends 'buy' on L&T, Aditya Birla NuvoBSE 2.41 %, Bata IndiaBSE 1.27 %, Pidilite IndustriesBSE 0.45 %, Swaraj EnginesBSE -0.38 %, NBCC, ILFS, IDFCBSE 1.79 % LIC and M& M Finance from the long-term perspective.
Technically, the trend remains on the downside till the Nifty trades below 6000 levels for short term. Analysts advise investors to be stock specific in any kind of pull back rally at current levels of market.
"Two factors one needs to watch out for further medium term trend of the Nifty. One is the Budget and other is the trend in global markets," said Devang Shah (Portfolio Manager- PRO TECH-PMS) at Sharekhan Ltd.
"The Budget might act as a catalyst for determining the medium-term trend of Nifty. Secondly, some of the global markets like the United States are trading near very crucial resistance levels and other European markets are already in corrective mode," he added.
The Nifty has seen some selling pressure in the last few weeks and has corrected from a high of 6111 to around 5850 levels. The index has strong support near the 5780-5800 mark and could continue to move in the 5800-6100 range till the Budget.
PagariaBSE 4.92 % of Microsec Capital sees a good opportunity for long-term investors, if the index breaches 5780 levels, which could put the index further under pressure.
"That would be a very good place to invest with a medium-term target of 6300," he added.
Source : economictimes.indiatimes.com