Global Soybean may touch 254.89mn tons.

Spice complex on National Commodity and Derivative Exchange ended firm during the day as turmeric recovered whereas October pepper and Jeera futures slipped and closed with a net change of 0.38% and 0.07% respectively. Fundamental factors Pepper Due to high parity price the export demand of pepper remained weak for the past few days. Report relating to delay in Brazil new crop harvest and festive season in North India is expected to support the price. The huge difference in Indian pepper and other origin pepper has declined down to $200 per ton against $400 per ton. Total turnover during last week increased by 30 674 tons to 1 02 656 tons. Total open interest dropped by 1 282 tons to 16 823 tons. Jeera The prices will be strengthened in medium term as the availability of stock is limited till the fresh arrival which is expected in March. According to the market sources jeera stocks currently are projected to be lower at around 14 lakh bags compared with 16 17 lakh bags in the corresponding period previous year.


Turmeric Good rainfall in key growing area has increased the possibility of better production estimates which may limit the upward movement. In 2010 2011 the turmeric production is estimated to be 70 lakh bags higher against 42 lakh bags in last year. The arrivals start from February 2011 but peak season can be seen in April month. Low arrival in the market is providing good support for turmeric futures. As per market report turmeric arrival is estimated to be 4000 bags in Erode market less compared to last year. SOY COMPLEX Market review The NCDEX Soybean and refined soyoil contracts rose tracking firm CBOT closing in overnight trade amid short covering and bargain buying at lower levels.


On CBOT soybean futures closed above 3% in the overnight trade tracking gains in corn futures there. October Soybean future was at Rs.2050 100kg up from previous close. While refined soyoil futures closed at Rs.487.95 10kg. Outlook During August month India imported record edible oils. Imports stood at 10.65 lakh tonnes against 6.5 lakh tonnes in last year. During this festival season the import has increased due to higher demand. According to latest USDA reports world soy bean output is expected to increase marginally to 254.89 million tonnes against last month estimates of 253.69 million tonnes. Indian soy bean output is estimated at 92 lakh tonnes for this year against 90 lakh tonnes in the last year.


However weak domestic fundamental such as expectation of higher soybean output and the ample availability of edible oil in the physical market is expected to limit the upward trend. Others Market review Chana Chana futures ended down on lower demand amid higher stock availability. The NCDEX October chana closed at Rs.2200 100kg. Meanwhile the spot price recovered at Rs.2232 per quintal. Guar seed NCDEX Guarseed futures remained steady during the day and closed at Rs.1990 100kg with a net change of 0.32%. Outlook Chana Arrivals of kharif pulses and weak demand for most of the pulses are expected to pressurize the prices. Demand for most of the pulses has come down as retail prices still remain high even as whole sale prices are coming down.


Stockiest of chana are offloading their produce on fear of quality damage due to heavy rains in northern India. According to market source output of moong urad and tur is expected to increase by more than 30 percent to record levels due to higher acreage and favourable climatic conditions. Guar seed With commencement of arrivals in next few days guar seed prices have lost more than Rs500 per quintal in the last few weeks. For the day ahead guar seed futures may recover initially on short covering however fresh selling may emerge at higher levels. Due to higher output estimates the demand for guar seed and its products has come down and is a major bearish factor for the guar seed complex. Guar seed output is estimated at 1 crore bags against 34 lakh bags in last year.

Source : indiainfoline.com