Global rice exports to hit volume target this year.

NEW DELHI (Commodity Online) : Global rice exports could achieve the target in volume but the turnover could be lower than the same period of 2009, according to agricultural experts.

Basis for this forecast is from the announcement of Indian Ministry of Agriculture. Rabi crops (summer-autumn) of India is estimated higher than that of last year (14.7 million tonnes), with smaller damage figures than the forecast of the previous Kharif crop. India is possibly not in the list of rice importing countries to the end of the year.

The US Department of Agriculture also made rather optimistic forecasts on global rice production. According to the new report in June, 2010/2011 global rice volume will increase by four percent compared to 2009/2010 volume.

The global rice trade is predicted to rise and reach a level of 31.4 million tonnes. Moreover, Vietnam and Thailand have large rice inventory, while the supply pressure is high, so it is more likely for export rice prices to continue falling.

According to Vietnam Food Association, some rice exporters have been seeking access to Brazilian and South American markets. If the approach is succeeded, rice exports of Vietnam to the end of the year will be improved.

However, these are completely new market, the tastes of consumers in these markets are still unclear, and the possibility for success is thus not predictable. Middle East and African markets have been consuming Basmati rice mainly; Vietnam will find it hard in competing with those kinds of rice compared to Thailand, Pakistan and India.

However, experts also stressed that the world demand for food is increasing, and there still is demand for rice. Thus, with advantages of being the leading rice producer and exporter, Vietnam could fully enhance the position in the future by making good use of the advantages and opportunities.

In order to take advantage of opportunities, the agricultural sector must have plans for rice growing areas, specialising in the rice varieties that Vietnam has strengths, applying technology in harvesting, preserving and processing rice to get the good quality products, ensuring consistency in rice exports, avoiding dumping to reduce the prestige of Vietnam rice.

By the end of 2009, due to information on bad season in India and Indonesia and the possibility that Elnino would happen in rice-growing countries, it was imagined that 2010 could be a year with higher demand and less supply for rice.

Nevertheless, changes in the global rice market show that the situation is completely reversed compared to the forecast.

Although India lost Kharif or summer crop, but the volume of rice has not fallen much.

Indonesia has been considering entering the rice export market, though the market was closed earlier. Meanwhile, Thailand and Vietnam have large stock of rice for export.

Source : Commodity Online