New Delhi, Aug. 3 India’s merchandise export growth continued to decline for the ninth consecutive month in June, plummeting by 27.7 per cent, and amounted to $12.82 billion, compared with $17.73 billion registered in June 2008.
Imports too stayed in step with exports by registering a decline of 29.3 per cent and were valued at $18.98 billion against $26.86 billion in the corresponding month of 2008.
Moody’s.com said that compared with the May performance, the June performance of exports and imports showed a slight improvement as the rate of decline in both cases was lower. With the global prospects improving — especially with the US contraction easing — India’s exports might begin to recover later in the year, it said, adding that India’s imports were likely to recover at a faster pace than exports as the Indian authorities might step up efforts to enable infrastructure development in the coming months.
Cumulatively, exports during the first quarter of the current fiscal (April to June) were down 31.3 per cent at $35.43 billion against $51.55 billion in the corresponding quarter of the 2008-09 fiscal. Imports were down 36.5 per cent at $50.94 billion ($80.19 billion). In rupee terms, exports during the first quarter plunged 19.6 per cent at Rs 1,72,762 crore (Rs 2,14,808 crore), while imports fell 25.7 per cent at Rs 2,48,171 crore (Rs 3,34,191 crore).
‘Trade data alarming’
Commerce Ministry officials told Business Line here that since the slowdown and subsequent decline in exports began last October, the ‘base effect’ of recovery would have to be awaited till end-September this year to work itself out.
However, the Federation of Indian Export Organisation (FIEO) President, Mr A. Saktivel, described the latest trade data as “alarming”.
He said the Government should set in motion some short-term measures, including revision in the duty drawback rates, augmented assistance under ‘focus market’ and focus product schemes and income tax holiday for exporters for a span of five years, to retrieve lost ground.
While trade deficit in the latest available month of June 2009 fell to $6.16 billion, against $9.12 billion in June 2008, the overall trade deficit during the first quarter of 2009-10 fiscal also fell to $15.50 billion, against $28.64 billion in the corresponding quarter of 2008-09.
The saving grace in the steep fall in trade deficit came from the cut in oil import bill, both in June 2009 and also in the first quarter of 2009-10, compared with the corresponding period of 2008-09.
Oil imports during June 2009 at $4.99 billion were 50.6 per cent lower than $10.11 billion in June 2008, while they amounted to $12.76 billion during April-June 2009-10 ($29.54 billion).
This is largely due to the softening of global crude oil prices in recent months as compared to the dizzying levels they were ruling at in the larger part of 2008.
Non-oil imports in June 2009 at $13.97 billion were 16.5 per cent lower than $16.73 billion in June 2008, while such imports during the first quarter of the current fiscal at $38.16 billion were 24.6 per cent lower than the $50.64 million in April-June 2008.
Source : Business Line