Kochi, March 1 Cashew exports continued their downward trend during April-January 2009-2010 despite the in unit value declining against the same period last year.
Total shipments for the period were 84,463 tonnes valued at Rs 2,267.29 crore against 92,609 tonnes valued at Rs 2,541.24 crore in April-January 2008-09, Mr Sasi Varma, Secretary, Cashew Export Promotion Council, told Business Line.
The average unit value dropped to Rs 268.44 a kg from Rs 274.48 a kg, he said.
However, in January exports showed a marginal rise to 8,694 tonnes valued at Rs 241.64 crore from 8,530 tonnes valued at Rs 224.48 crore. This was despite an increase in the unit value in January this year at Rs 277.94 a kg (Rs 263.16).
Activities in the market in January and most part of February remained by and large quiet. However, some activity was reported last week. But the prices remained almost the same, that is, for W240 between $2.85 and $2.90 per lb; W320 $2.55-$2.60 and W450 $2.40-$2.45 a lb (f.o.b.), trading sources said.
Off markets and the domestic market were quiet. However, there has been some decline in prices for brokens in the Indian market, they said.
There seems to be reasonable interest at current levels for March-May shipments. It is possible that “buyers may drop their buying ideas if volume of offers increased, but large processors in both origins are not offering and this is providing a floor to the market for the time being,” Mr Pankaj N. Sampat, a Mumbai-based trader, told Business Line.
“Some traders are offering second half 2010 deliveries at lower levels albeit no trades have been reported. This could induce more selling interest at current levels for near-bys. Buyers are content to buy small volumes at each level as they do not see any reason to take large forward cover.”
This trend is likely to continue unless there is a big change in demand trend or a significant change in supply situation,” he said.
The trade feels that market is very delicately poised and hence it could move either way, depending on the timing of the next round of big buying (especially because very little business has been done so far for second half shipments). Reduced liquidity means more volatility – slight increase in selling or buying interest can tip the market, he said.
Nothing new has emerged on the Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) front where West African nuts were quoted at $875 a tonne (c&f) while Ivory Coast quoted $725 a tonne (c&f) and $675-$700 a tonne (c&f) for Nigeria for April shipment, Mr Pankaj said.
The low prices in the producing countries paved the way for increased imports of raw nuts. Indian imports of RCN during April-January 2009-10 stood at 6,87,467 tonnes valued at Rs 2,711.67 crore against 5,39,380 tonnes valued at Rs 2,318.20 crore. The unit value has dropped to Rs 39.44 a kg from Rs 42.98 a kg, CEPC sources said.
As reported earlier, he said, business for March/ FH April shipment was done at higher levels few weeks ago. Until physical movements start, both sellers and buyers were not keen to commit additional quantities. For the time being, everything points to normal supplies in all origins, he said.
If the processors decided to sell for SH before buying RCN, we could see prices come off from current levels (for kernels as well as RCN). On the other hand, if buyers need to buy for SH in the next 4-6 weeks, the trade sees the market stabilising around current levels. This would keep RCN prices steady and could lead to higher kernel prices in the second half.
In the short-term, market has a soft bias due to slow buying plus impending new crops. In the medium term, there is potential for some increase in prices in the latter part of the year if demand grows with lower prices. External factors will continue to have increasing impact on demand and market trend, Mr Sampat added.
Source : Business Line