Dips in Turmeric may be limited on low stocks.

Pepper and Jeera futures traded volatile while Turmeric moved up and gained about 3% during the day. The NCDEX pepper September traded in the range of Rs.19998-19610 and closed at Rs. Jeera September contract was firm during the day and closed with a net change of -0.02%

Fundamental factors Pepper
The buyers are not willing to take delivery as the export demand of pepper remains weak due to high parity price. Report relating to delay in Brazil new crop harvest and festive season in North India is expected to support the price. The huge difference in Indian pepper and other origin pepper has declined down to $200 per ton against $400 per ton. At present Indian pepper is trading at $4350 per ton.

Jeera
There is an expected rise in acreage as ongoing rainfall in key growing regions is favourable for rabi crops sowing which will begin in October. Meanwhile the downward trend may be limited due to low stocks and expected rise in export demand.

Turmeric
Low arrival in the market is providing good support for turmeric futures. As per market report turmeric arrival is estimated to be 4000 bags in Erode market less compared to last year.

However good rainfall in key growing area has increased the possibility of better production estimates which may limit the upward movement. In 2010-2011 the turmeric production is estimated to be 70 lakh bags higher against 42 lakh bags in last year. The arrivals start from February 2011, but peak season can be seen in April month.

SOY COMPLEX Market review
Soybean and refined soyoil contracts on NCDEX traded volatile on better output hopes and higher edible oil imports. The NCDEX soybean September contract traded in a range of Rs.1999-1967 and closed at Rs.19925. NCDEX refined soyoil contracts reached at a high of Rs.474.60 and closed with a net change of 0.64%.

Outlook
During August month India imported record edible oils. Imports stood at 10.65 lakh tonnes against 6.5 lakh tonnes in last year. During this festival season, the import has increased due to higher demand. According to latest USDA reports, world soy bean output is expected to increase marginally to 254.89 million tonnes against last month estimates of 253.69 million tonnes. Indian soy bean output is estimated at 92 lakh tonnes for this year against 90 lakh tonnes in the last year. Soy bean and soy oil futures are expected to remain sideways with weak bias on weak domestic fundamentals.

Others Market review Chana
Chana futures traded up on short covering. The NCDEX September chana recovered after reaching a low of Rs.2088 and closed at Rs.2111. Meanwhile the spot price remained steady at Rs.2220 per quintal.

Guar seed
NCDEX Guarseed futures fell during the day and made new low of Rs.1928 and reflected a bearish trend on short covering. Weak demand and higher estimates pressurized the prices.

Outlook Chana
According to market source output of moong, urad and tur is expected to increase by more than 30 percent to record levels due to higher acreage and favourable climatic conditions. Arrivals of kharif pulses and weak demand for most of the pulses are expected to pressurize the prices. Demand for most of the pulses has come down as retail prices still remain high even as whole sale prices are coming down. Stockiest of chana are offloading their produce on fear of quality damage due to heavy rains in northern India.

Guar seed
Due to higher output estimates the demand for guar seed and its products has come down and is a major bearish factor for the guar seed complex. Guar seed output is estimated at 1 crore bags against 34 lakh bags in last year. With commencement of arrivals in next few days, guar seed prices have lost more than Rs500 per quintal in the last few weeks. For the day ahead, guar seed futures may recover initially on short covering, however, fresh selling may emerge at higher levels.

Source : commodityonline.com