Bangalore, Feb. 23 Coffee exports are expected to touch the 2008-09 level of 1.97 lakh tonnes this fiscal on account of encouraging arrivals of the current season's (November 2009-October 2010) crop. Industry observers say that while the previous year's crop was bad, the current year points to a return to the normal pattern.
Two possibilities
Exports from January 1 to February 19 that is supposed to reflect arrivals of the new crop recorded 31,538 tonnes, a 42 per cent rise compared with the figure for the corresponding period last year – 22,199 tonnes. The realisation in value terms, at about $75 million, is 47 per cent higher than last year.
Industry observers say that this points to two possibilities: a good crop, with the added advantage of favourable market prices; or one where favourable market prices have made up for any possible damage to the arabica parchment variety in favour of arabica cherry.
Re-exports
Even if the re-exports of 8,119 tonnes during this period are to be deducted, exports during this period clocked about 3,000 tonnes more than last year's, after similarly excluding re-exports (1,841 tonnes in January-February 2009).
The export performance this coffee year (October 2009-February 19) points to an increase in volume terms than in value terms. Exports during this period totalled 76,894 tonnes, against 58,347 tonnes in the corresponding period in 2008-09, a rise of 32 per cent. However, the realisation in value terms, at $172 million, is only 20 per cent higher.
Since October, value realisation has improved, as expected. World prices are normally more favourable in February, coinciding with the arrival of the fresh Indian crop, than in October and November, when there is a glut in the market.
However, Mr P.F. Saldanha, Belur Coffee Curing and Trading Company and a Coffee Board member says: “The rise in export this coffee year is a result of the release of last year's stocks.
The crop will fall short for both internal consumption and exports.”
The market prices (for a 50 kg bag) are Rs 6,500-6,800 for arabica parchment, Rs 3,300-3,700 (arabica cherry), Rs 1,700-1,800 (robusta cherry) and Rs 4,200-4,500 (robusta parchment).
Indications are that the Coffee Board's post-monsoon estimate of 2,89,000 tonnes is likely to hold true, growers say, although a 15 per cent quality loss is on the cards.
Source : Business Line