Cashew exports in the current financial year are down as compared to last year as buyers have cut down on their consumption and inventory.
However, most traders feel that exports might pick up from January onwards as economic revival in Europe and the US will encourage major retailers to replenish their stocks.
Global cashew trade is around 10% lower in 2009 by 10% as compared to shipments in 2008.
According to figures from the Cashew Export Promotion Council, Indian exports are around 5% lower in volume and 7.8% down in value in April-November this year as compared to the same period last year.
Dollar realisation is down by almost 19% in 2009-10. Unit realisation for exporting a kilogram of cashew kernel has dropped to Rs 267.93 as against Rs 275.85 during April-November of 2008-09.
Interestingly, during the same period India has imported more raw cashew from West Africa . Imports of raw cashew are higher by 21% during the first eight months of the current fiscal.
“Higher imports have not translated into higher inventory for the processors as shipments have come in a staggered manner. It is obvious that the cashew kernels are finding its way into the robust domestic market,” a trader from Kollam told FE.
He added that Indian consumption could be a trigger point in global cashew trade in the coming days given the huge market size and a growing retail sector.
Exporters who were hoping for good contracts in the last quarter of 2009 were disappointed with retailers were not covering their long positions.
“Buyers are only buying for near contracts and waiting for a cue to enter into long contracts,” Pankaj Sampat of Samsons Trading said.
“First quarter of 2010 will be the decisive period. If buyers feel that consumption would be back to normal level like other commodities, their demand would be significant,” he added.
Shipments from Vietnam and India , the two largest cashew exporters, are seen lower by almost 10% during the fist ten months of 2009.
World cashew production in 2009 was more or less unchanged compared to 2008.
Despite fears of large drops in consumption, there are no large inventories in origins or importing countries.
“Supplies can be expected to be tight in first quarter 2010 because of lower production in Tanzania & Brazil. Sellers will continue to sell small quantities either when they see some good bids or need to sell to keep things moving, Pankaj of Samsons Trading said.
Meanwhile, raw cashew continues to sell at higher prices in Tanzania and Indonesia
Source : FinancialExpress