Early on, nobody was expecting much from the
Budget but the revised low estimates of the GDP published recently along with the fiscal deficit targets have sparked speculation that the Finance Minister will be forced to convert from an election oriented Budget to a growth focused one.
In every Budget, our wishlist consists of hopes that steps be taken which will fuel investment and demand. We have seen that even aggressive FII investment in 2013 (USD 7.5 Billion already and counting) has been unable to push up the markets significantly and is being met by selling from MFs, other domestic institutions and retail investors.
It will take a sustained rise in markets to bring retail investors back to the markets and ultimately that alone will make for healthy capital markets in India.
This could mean a combination of steps that are genuinely strong and others which are simply market friendly. But a good Budget policywise will attract even more money into India.
First the obvious one viz. changes in STT (Securities Transaction Tax) would fall squarely in my list of must haves. One way is to completely do away with STT for delivery transactions because it will help investment as well as improve investor sentiment. Secondly, short term capital gains can be cut to 5% if we are to promote investment in equity markets.
Third, the Rajiv Gandhi Equity Savings Scheme (RGESS) can be modified to make it more inclusive with people having income up to Rs 20 Lacs also coming under its umbrella and correspondingly increase the associated tax break limit from Rs 50,000 to Rs 1 lac.
Suitable changes to RGESS will also work well to bring first time investors into equity markets and create a much needed equity cult in a country where a very small percentage goes into equities and the long term growth depends on the citizens to fund it as well as partake of the potential profits of growth in this decade and beyond.
A downward revision in income-tax slabs will also be welcome, so that people can invest more and this should be a welcome shot in the arm for markets, and perhaps unexpected. Then there has also been talk of imposing Commodities Transaction Tax (CTT) which should be avoided. If we do, we will be only the second country after Taiwan to have it and Taiwan has a non-existent commodity market partly for this reason.
A growth oriented Budget will likely focus on India’s infrastructure sector which is estimated to entail investment of Rs 50 Lac Crores over the next five year plan. Any concrete steps in this direction will enhance the mood in capital markets. We have also recently seen a decrease in policy rates after a while and further indications in this direction will signal that growth is back on the agenda. This will also benefit banks.
All decision should have long term focus e.g. decrease in subsidies may be inflationary and even affect short-term consumption but it must be done for long-term benefit and financial health. Though genuinely speaking, bold decisions seem a tough ask at this time.
The big discussion this year has been around fiscal deficit. Meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.3% is very important this year and the FM, indeed the country, is committed towards this goal. We have done it before and we can do it again. Meeting this target will send a positive signal to domestic and foreign investors that we are sincerely following up on our targets.
Markets too have been dull though January felt like a good month with USD 4 Billion of FII investment coming in v/s USD 2 Billion in January last year. In spite of this, the Nifty has been generally flat this calendar year and there has really been no traditional pre-budget rally.
But truly speaking the budget is not what it used to be and several big-ticket announcements like allowing foreign investment in airlines and the retail sector have already been made.
There is also the case of the government wanting to sell off its own holding in Public Sector companies to bridge gaps in its finances; this will likely keep markets down as money continues to flow from the retail public into their offers for sale.
But over the long term this is good for the markets as it will help the government repair their balance sheet and become healthy. Overall, banks, industrials, energy and infrastructure stocks look better placed than others as investment picks in today’s scenario.
In any case, having a long-term view of the markets is essential and basing investment decisions on a single event like the annual budget is never a good idea. Accumulate stocks via systematic investment, look at the long term and diversify your risk.
Source : moneycontrol.com